October 7th by the Numbers and as a Sign

The tragedy and catastrophe of the October 7th Massacre, like everything else, is hinted to in the Torah and Tanach.  For example, as we're in the Bein Hametzarim period, let's look at Eicha. 

Eicha 1:15:

טו  סִלָּה כָל-אַבִּירַי אֲדֹנָי בְּקִרְבִּי, קָרָא עָלַי מוֹעֵד לִשְׁבֹּר בַּחוּרָי; גַּת דָּרַךְ אֲדֹנָי, לִבְתוּלַת בַּת-יְהוּדָה.

15 The Lord hath set at nought all my mighty men in the midst of me; He hath called a solemn assembly against me to crush my young men; the Lord hath trodden as in a winepress the virgin the daughter of Judah.'

The Sages use this verse to explain that Tish'a Be'av itself is called a holiday.  However, allow me to offer a different interpretation.  

This verse encapsulates the utter military failure that occurred on the Mo'ed of Shemini Atzeret/Simhat Torah.  We get an even more detailed comparison when we look at the Targum on this verse (emphasis in the source):

כְנַשׁ כָּל תַּקִּיפַי יְיָ בֵּינִי אֲרַע זְמַן עָלַי לִתְבִירָא חֵיל עוּלֵימַי וְעָלוּ עַמְמַיָּא עַל גְזֵירַת מֵימְרָא דַייָ וְסָאִיבוּ בְתוּלְתָּא דְבֵית יְהוּדָה דִּי הֲוָה דִמְהוֹן דִבְתוּלְתְּהוֹן מִיתְשַׁד הֵיךְ כַּחֲמָר מִן מַעֲצַרְתָּא בְעִידַן דִגְּבַר מְבַעִיט יָת עִנְבִין חֲמַר עִינְבוֹהִי שַׁדְיָין:

The Lord has crushed all my mighty ones within me; he has established a time against me to shatter the strength of my young men. The nations entered by the decree of the Memra of the Lord and defiled the virgins of the House of Judah until their blood of their virginity was caused to flow like wine from a wine press when a man is treading grapes and the wine of his grapes flows.

But how do we know that the Mo'ed referred to is Shemini Atzeret?

We just read Parashat Pinehas about Shemini Atzeret:

לה  בַּיּוֹם, הַשְּׁמִינִי--עֲצֶרֶת, תִּהְיֶה לָכֶם:  כָּל-מְלֶאכֶת עֲבֹדָה, לֹא תַעֲשׂוּ.	35 On the eighth day ye shall have a solemn assembly: ye shall do no manner of servile work;
לו  וְהִקְרַבְתֶּם עֹלָה אִשֵּׁה רֵיחַ נִיחֹחַ, לַיהוָה--פַּר אֶחָד, אַיִל אֶחָד; כְּבָשִׂים בְּנֵי-שָׁנָה שִׁבְעָה, תְּמִימִם.	36 but ye shall present a burnt-offering, an offering made by fire, of a sweet savour unto the LORD: one bullock, one ram, seven he-lambs of the first year without blemish;
לז  מִנְחָתָם וְנִסְכֵּיהֶם, לַפָּר לָאַיִל וְלַכְּבָשִׂים בְּמִסְפָּרָם--כַּמִּשְׁפָּט.	37 their meal-offering and their drink-offerings for the bullock, for the ram, and for the lambs, shall be according to their number, after the ordinance;
לח  וּשְׂעִיר חַטָּאת, אֶחָד; מִלְּבַד עֹלַת הַתָּמִיד, וּמִנְחָתָהּ וְנִסְכָּהּ.	38 and one he-goat for a sin-offering; beside the continual burnt-offering, and the meal-offering thereof, and the drink-offering thereof.
לט  אֵלֶּה תַּעֲשׂוּ לַיהוָה, בְּמוֹעֲדֵיכֶם--לְבַד מִנִּדְרֵיכֶם וְנִדְבֹתֵיכֶם, לְעֹלֹתֵיכֶם וּלְמִנְחֹתֵיכֶם, וּלְנִסְכֵּיכֶם, וּלְשַׁלְמֵיכֶם.	39 These ye shall offer unto the LORD in your appointed seasons, beside your vows, and your freewill-offerings, whether they be your burnt-offerings, or your meal-offerings, or your drink-offerings, or your peace-offerings.

We are not including verse 30:1 since Rashi says that that verse is only there to separate the section of the Torah that talks about the sacrifices of the holidays from the next Parasha of Matot that talks about vows to show that Moshe Rabbeinu told the holiday Musafim section over to the people.

But we will include verse 29:39 despite the fact that it is a summarizing verse for all the holidays since it is part of the Parasha of Shemini Ateret and part of Hashem's words to Moshe.

Note the 30 Mems in these 5 verses.  Since each Mem has a gematria of 40, that means that 30 Mems have a gematria of 1200, the number of Korbanot murdered on October 7th.

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Without minimizing the enormity of such an event, we can also definitely say that without certain miracles from Hashem, the loss could have been so much worse.

We know that there are 20 days of Biblical holidays mentioned in Parashat Pinehas:

1. Shabbat (counted as 1 day)
2. Rosh Hodesh (counted as 1 day)
3. Pesah (7 days)
4. Shavuot (1 day)
5. Rosh Hashana (1 day)
6. Kippur (1 day)
7. Sukkot (7 days)
8. Shemini Atzeret (1 day)

If Shemini Atzeret claimed 1200 lives, if you multiply that by all the days of the holidays (20), you get 24,000.  This is the number of those who died in the plague in Shittim.  Then, as now, we were duped by an enemy and paid the price.  

But B"H, the October 7th massacre was relegated to one one-day holiday - Shemini Atzeret - which is a רגל בפני עצמו - a holiday unto itself.  With Hashem's lovingkindness, we were spared a much greater tragedy that could have occurred.

And just as then, when in Parashat Matot, Moshe was commanded to take vengeance against the Midianites, it seems like vengeance is being exacted against Hamas, especially with today's news.

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The Book of Daniel contains this famous cryptic verse:

ז  וָאֶשְׁמַע אֶת-הָאִישׁ לְבוּשׁ הַבַּדִּים, אֲשֶׁר מִמַּעַל לְמֵימֵי הַיְאֹר, וַיָּרֶם יְמִינוֹ וּשְׂמֹאלוֹ אֶל-הַשָּׁמַיִם, וַיִּשָּׁבַע בְּחֵי הָעוֹלָם:  כִּי לְמוֹעֵד מוֹעֲדִים וָחֵצִי, וּכְכַלּוֹת נַפֵּץ יַד-עַם-קֹדֶשׁ--תִּכְלֶינָה כָל-אֵלֶּה.

7 And I heard the man clothed in linen, who was above the waters of the river, when he lifted up his right hand and his left hand unto heaven, and swore by Him that liveth for ever that it shall be for a time, times, and a half; and when they have made an end of breaking in pieces the power of the holy people, all these things shall be finished.

Perhaps, the Mo'ed refers to Shemini Atzeret, 5784, which was the event that Daniel was to wait for.  We know this from the verse in Eicha above that I surmised was referring to that very day and is called a "Mo'ed".  

Then, he was told to wait for the Mo'adim.  Since we know from the first Mishna in Rosh Hashana that Rosh Hodesh Nissan is the New Year for holidays, that means that Shemini Atzeret is the last of the year's holidays.  So, he must have been told to wait for the following year's holidays.

But then it says וחצי, meaning that when it referred to the Mo'adim, we don't have to wait for all the Mo'adim to pass - only half of them.

We see from the list of holidays above that whether you count the number of holidays or whether you count the number of days of the holidays, the halfway point is reached at Shavuot.  The next half of holidays begins at Rosh Hashana.

So we need to find the midpoint between Shavuot and Rosh Hashana to find the exact חצי. 

The first day of Shavuot is June 12th, 2024.  The first day of Rosh Hashana is October 3rd, 2024.  That is a span of 114 days (when you include both days).  That would mean that 57 days from Shavuot would be the midpoint, which comes out to August 8th, 2024, or the 4th of Av, 5784.

וּכְכַלּוֹת נַפֵּץ יַד-עַם-קֹדֶשׁ perhaps means: when the bombing by Hezbollah/Hamas/Houthis/Iran of the holy Jewish people will stop, which we hope בע"ה will be done by that date the latest.  Things are heating up in the entire region so the terrible status quo seems to be ending soon.  And we will inevitably enter a new phase of war, which we pray won't be even more terrible.  ה' ישמור.

But in the end, it will be good.  Very good.

All this is pure conjecture.  May we merit it!