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Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Pesah Calendar Stuff Redux

Please refer to this post from 5 years ago where I gave my own unsourced estimation that a Pesah that falls out on a Thursday is not as good of a sign as a Pesah that falls out on a Sunday, Tuesday, or Shabbat.  This has to do, according to my own view, with the order of the Torah readings having a better-sounding meaning.

The chart I brought down there showed how the "drought" of Thursday Pesahs that we were (and still are) in was the longest in a while (10 years).  The chart there spanned 100 years, but I failed to go back further to see when the last time such a long "drought" occurred.

I will now display the chart from 1750 until 2050, and you can see how rare this 10-year "drought" span really is.  The second-longest "drought" throughout this period is 6 years.


1750 5510 Tu
1751 5511 Sa
1752 5512 Th Flood
1753 5513 Th
1754 5514 Su
1755 5515 Th
1756 5516 Th
1757 5517 Tu
1758 5518 Su
1759 5519 Th
1760 5520 Tu
1761 5521 Su
1762 5522 Th
1763 5523 Tu Drought
1764 5524 Tu
1765 5525 Sa
1766 5526 Tu
1767 5527 Tu
1768 5528 Sa
1769 5529 Sa
1770 5530 Tu
1771 5531 Sa
1772 5532 Sa
1773 5533 Th Flood
1774 5534 Su
1775 5535 Sa
1776 5536 Th
1777 5537 Tu
1778 5538 Su
1779 5539 Th
1780 5540 Th
1781 5541 Tu
1782 5542 Sa
1783 5543 Th
1784 5544 Tu
1785 5545 Sa
1786 5546 Th
1787 5547 Tu Drought
1788 5548 Tu
1789 5549 Sa
1790 5550 Tu
1791 5551 Tu
1792 5552 Sa
1793 5553 Th
1794 5554 Tu Drought
1795 5555 Sa
1796 5556 Sa
1797 5557 Tu
1798 5558 Su
1799 5559 Sa
1800 5560 Th Flood
1801 5561 Su
1802 5562 Sa
1803 5563 Th
1804 5564 Tu
1805 5565 Su
1806 5566 Th
1807 5567 Th
1808 5568 Tu
1809 5569 Sa
1810 5570 Th
1811 5571 Tu
1812 5572 Sa
1813 5573 Th
1814 5574 Tu Drought
1815 5575 Tu
1816 5576 Sa
1817 5577 Tu
1818 5578 Tu
1819 5579 Sa
1820 5580 Th Flood
1821 5581 Tu
1822 5582 Sa
1823 5583 Th
1824 5584 Tu
1825 5585 Su
1826 5586 Sa
1827 5587 Th Flood
1828 5588 Su
1829 5589 Sa
1830 5590 Th
1831 5591 Tu
1832 5592 Su
1833 5593 Th
1834 5594 Th
1835 5595 Tu
1836 5596 Sa
1837 5597 Th
1838 5598 Tu Drought
1839 5599 Sa
1840 5600 Sa
1841 5601 Tu
1842 5602 Sa
1843 5603 Sa
1844 5604 Th Flood
1845 5605 Tu
1846 5606 Sa
1847 5607 Th
1848 5608 Tu
1849 5609 Sa
1850 5610 Th
1851 5611 Th
1852 5612 Su
1853 5613 Sa
1854 5614 Th
1855 5615 Tu
1856 5616 Su
1857 5617 Th
1858 5618 Tu Drought
1859 5619 Tu
1860 5620 Sa
1861 5621 Tu
1862 5622 Tu
1863 5623 Sa
1864 5624 Th
1865 5625 Tu Drought
1866 5626 Sa
1867 5627 Sa
1868 5628 Tu
1869 5629 Sa
1870 5630 Sa
1871 5631 Th Flood
1872 5632 Tu
1873 5633 Sa
1874 5634 Th
1875 5635 Tu
1876 5636 Su
1877 5637 Th
1878 5638 Th
1879 5639 Tu
1880 5640 Sa
1881 5641 Th
1882 5642 Tu
1883 5643 Su
1884 5644 Th
1885 5645 Tu Drought
1886 5646 Tu
1887 5647 Sa
1888 5648 Tu
1889 5649 Tu
1890 5650 Sa
1891 5651 Th
1892 5652 Tu Drought
1893 5653 Sa
1894 5654 Sa
1895 5655 Tu
1896 5656 Su
1897 5657 Sa
1898 5658 Th Flood
1899 5659 Su
1900 5660 Sa
1901 5661 Th
1902 5662 Tu
1903 5663 Su
1904 5664 Th
1905 5665 Th
1906 5666 Tu
1907 5667 Sa
1908 5668 Th
1909 5669 Tu
1910 5670 Su
1911 5671 Th
1912 5672 Tu Drought
1913 5673 Tu
1914 5674 Sa
1915 5675 Tu
1916 5676 Tu
1917 5677 Sa
1918 5678 Th
1919 5679 Tu
1920 5680 Sa
1921 5681 Sa
1922 5682 Th Flood
1923 5683 Su
1924 5684 Sa
1925 5685 Th
1926 5686 Tu
1927 5687 Su
1928 5688 Th
1929 5689 Th
1930 5690 Su
1931 5691 Th
1932 5692 Th
1933 5693 Tu
1934 5694 Sa
1935 5695 Th
1936 5696 Tu Drought
1937 5697 Sa
1938 5698 Sa
1939 5699 Tu
1940 5700 Tu
1941 5701 Sa
1942 5702 Th Flood
1943 5703 Tu
1944 5704 Sa
1945 5705 Th
1946 5706 Tu
1947 5707 Sa
1948 5708 Sa
1949 5709 Th
19505710Su
19515711Sa
19525712Th
19535713Tu
19545714Su
19555715Th
19565716Tu
19575717Tu
19585718Sa
19595719ThFlood
19605720Tu
19615721Sa
19625722Th
19635723TuDrought
19645724Sa
19655725Sa
19665726Tu
19675727Tu
19685728Sa
19695729ThFlood
19705730Tu
19715731Sa
19725732Th
19735733Tu
19745734Su
19755735Th
19765736Th
19775737Su
19785738Sa
19795739Th
19805740Tu
19815741Su
19825742Th
19835743Tu
19845744Tu
19855745Sa
19865746ThFlood
19875747Tu
19885748Sa
19895749Th
19905750TuDrought
19915751Sa
19925752Sa
19935753Tu
19945754Su
19955755Sa
19965756ThFlood
19975757Tu
19985758Sa
19995759Th
20005760Th
20015761Su
20025762Th
20035763Th
20045764Tu
20055765Su
20065766Th
20075767Tu
20085768Su
20095769Th
20105770TuDrought
20115771Tu
20125772Sa
20135773Tu
20145774Tu
20155775Sa
20165776Sa
20175777Tu
20185778Sa
20195779Sa
20205780ThFlood
20215781Su
20225782Sa
20235783Th
20245784Tu
20255785Su
20265786Th
20275787Th
20285788Tu
20295789Sa
20305790Th
20315791Tu
20325792Sa
20335793Th
20345794TuDrought
20355795Tu
20365796Sa
20375797Tu
20385798Tu
20395799Sa
20405800Th
20415801TuDrought
20425802Sa
20435803Sa
20445804Tu
20455805Su
20465806Sa
20475807ThFlood
20485808Su
20495809Sa
20505810Th

It seems that the 10-year drought that we are experiencing now has not occurred since 1763-1772 (5523-5532) - 247 years ago.  12 6-year droughts occurred between the two 10-year droughts.

This year, 5776, is the 7th year of the 10-year drought.  In other words, it is the first year over the normal 6-year drought, showing its rarity.

Note that within the Tur's entire 247 year cycle, this 10-year drought only occurs one time.  Since the Tur's 247-year cycle is the same each year of the cycle, that would allow me to assume that this occurs exactly the same every 247 years.

Here are the years from Creation that this occurred based on our current calendar.  Of course, it would always depend on when intercalation occurred before Hillel's calendar was set up.

89-98
336-345
583-592
830-839
1077-1086
1324-1333
1571-1580
1818-1827
2065-2074
2312-2321
2559-2568
2806-2815
3053-3062
3300-3309
3547-3556
3794-3803
4041-4050
4288-4297
4535-4544
4782-4791
5029-5038
5276-5285
5523-5532
5770-5779

This is the 24th time that this occurred since Creation and will be the last before the year 6000.

Perhaps, this 7th time of reading קדש בכספא in a row for the last time before Mashiah is auspicious for hastening his arrival.

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